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Saturday, August 16, 2008


Events have moved along quickly with regard to the Georgia crisis. I get the distinct impression that the neoconservatives are now back-peddling somewhat from their aggressive stance against the Russians as they realise that it could jeopardise their primary commitment to Israel and their push for regime change in Iran. The neocons have quickly realised that the Russians aren’t going to be the pushover they first thought they were going to be. There has been posture and counter posture from both sides but there is only so much posturing the two sides can do without actual confrontation and, since the Russians have the advantage of home turf, the US are now all postured out and the Russians still haven’t budged.

Frederick Kagan writing in the neocon comic, The Weekly Standard, says: “The Cold War isn't back. The Russian attacks on Georgia don't mean American soldiers will soon be staring at Red Army soldiers in the middle of Germany or that U.S. defense spending must triple to match a global Russian military juggernaut.” Kagan even concedes, without actually saying it, that Russia has got the better of the situation; he writes: “American rhetoric about Russia's actions has been strong but has not deterred Putin from pushing even harder.” The reality is that while American rhetoric maybe aggressive, there is nothing they can do if Russia, as it has, digs its heels in and effectively tells the US to get knotted. Had the Russians backed off as the US demanded, the neocons and the Bush administration would have felt more confident in resuming their stance against Iran but since the Russians haven’t backed off the neocons and the administration have now found that it is they that need to back off from confrontation with Russia. Failure to do so could otherwise completely alienate the Russians and push them into the Iranian camp whereby the Iranian nuclear issue becomes part of the rhetoric in the standoff between the US and Russia – something the neocons and the Bush administration would be keen to avoid at all costs.

As the window of opportunity continues to close the countdown to a Final Confrontation with Iran is still ticking though the US and Israel are going to find it very difficult to get the regime change they need in Iran with the Russians breathing down their necks in anger.


Anonymous said...

George in Toronto
I suggest to the Russians/Iran that they make an agreement to install hundreds of Russian nukes. The reasoning would be that Georgia might attack Iran with Nukes. Americans will swallow it,just as they did--Iran nuking East Europe

Anonymous said...

And Bush says, "I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow....uh what's that?"

Face it George, you can't blow anything except your own credibility and you blew that a LONG time ago.

You've been exposed for the liar, thief, con artist and mass murderer that you are and no one--outside of the USA--believes your BS.

Hell, you can't even get Turkey to let US ships in thru the Dardanelle Straits into the Black Sea.

You're nothing more than a stark, raving mad loonie, but a stark, raving mad loonie that's in control of around 7,000 or so nukes and as someone's said, "Ay, that's the rub."

As for Kagan and his fellow travlers at the AEI and Brookings and WINEP, along with the Bush/Cheney gang, AKA the "Vulcans," the sooner they're charged with treason, rounded up and jailed for the rest of the unnatural lives, the sooner the world will breathe a sigh of peace.

Another flub? Bush vowed Navy aid to Georgia too soon

By Jonathan S. Landay | McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — President Bush Wednesday promised that U.S. naval forces would deliver humanitarian aid to war-torn Georgia before his administration had received approval from Turkey, which controls naval access to the Black Sea, or the Pentagon had planned a seaborne operation, U.S. officials said Thursday.

As of late Thursday, Ankara, a NATO ally, hadn't cleared any U.S. naval vessels to steam to Georgia through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, the narrow straits that connect the Mediterranean and the Black Seas, the officials said. Under the 1936 Montreaux Convention, countries must notify Turkey before sending warships through the straits.

Pentagon officials told McClatchy that they were increasingly dubious that any U.S. Navy vessels would join the aid operation, in large part because the U.S.-based hospital ships likely to go, the USNS Comfort and the USNS Mercy, would take weeks to arrive.

"The president was writing checks to the Georgians without knowing what he had in the bank," said a senior administration official.....

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately the US-Polish ABM deal, which is a fundamental threat to the MAD doctrine and worse for Russian security than Russian missiles in Cuba were for US security, combined with the NATO encirclement of Russia, the Kosovo affair, and the latest rhetoric against Russia, punishing her for defending the lives of her troops and citizens, has ignited a new Cold War - the US has clearly painted Russia as its enemy.

I don't see why Russia would do anything to benefit the US anymore. The partnership has been clearly terminated by the US, with a big F U.

Anonymous said...

Thank god that someone is standing up to the arrogant, imperialist Americans. The stance by Russia might encourage other nations to call America's bluff and send it packing.

After all, why should a nation with 5% of the world's population be allowed to gain control of the other 95%?

Warren Wilson said...

As Pat Buchanan stated the unmitigated truth, "Georgia started this fight. Russia finished it." Wake up and smell the coffee, OK?

michael said...

Israel's objective to this is central, not peripheral, they have Hebrew speaking `former` Israelis heading up the Georgian cabinet posts of Defense, Reintegration. The Georgian PM has asked for a Israeli rabbi's blessing. What does that make the PM, a Christian ?

Their Pres takes orders and appears on TV explaining the unexplainable.

It follows then that close communication with the Israeli Defense Minister would have taken place to determine the date and target of initiating action.

First reports were that 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed and 30 wounded. To further enrage the Russians into action, some 1500+ S.Ossetian civilians were murdered in their beds that night by Georgian grad rocket fire.

That was the point, and not the absorption of S.Ossetian territory into Georgia - which had no hope of success anyway, but the drawing of Russia into a prolonged military quagmire of some weeks duration in driving Georgians not just out of S.Ossetia but also well away.

Had the Russians and Georgians still been throwing ordnance at each other 10 days later without any sign of resolution then the purpose of the initial assault 10 days earlier would become clear; the assault against Iran would have got underway since Russia would have been unable to assist Iran being otherwise preoccupied as China would also be with the Games, which explains the choice of the eve of the Games as the date decided on for initiating the action.

The Russians knew what was, and why, afoot and so they saw the absolute imperative in getting this over with in 24hrs - which they did, lest USrael exploit the anticipated delay by obliterating Iran's nuclear facilities, with countless thousands of dead.

US based Neocons did not need to know any of this for them to instinctively manage the rhetorical content arising from the raw news flooding in, as their job is to airbrush Israel out of the picture.

Nor did the US administration need to have been consulted, though they would have been informed.

Where are we at the end of this ? Russia can now force right of way, should it be needed, through Georgia to Armenia to Iran.

USrael has really shot themselves in the foot in underestimating Russia, and their plan of assaulting Iran cannot now go ahead as Russia will now have less difficulty than before in giving aid to Iran overland.

The plans to assault Iran's nuclear facilities will have to be shelved permanently and the road to WW3 is thus also blocked.

Anonymous said...

What many fail to realise is that Russia doesn't have to be an aggressor. Russia knows that all they have to do is wait and counter punch. We are imploding financially and militarily. It's just a matter of time before we can't go forward or even tread water.

Anonymous said...

What many fail to realise is that Russia doesn't have to be an aggressor. Russia knows that all they have to do is wait and counter punch. We are imploding financially and militarily. It's just a matter of time before we can't go forward or even tread water.

michael said...

Anon 11.58pm, Ron Paul had it spot on when he said that the Fed Reserve needs to be abolished and that American military bases overseas, some 175 of them, need to be closed.

The outlay on these bases is close to a trillion annually, and the amount of interest paid to the Fed annually by income taxpayers is about the same. Prior to 1913 this Fed Reserve scam did not exist.

Both bases overseas and the Fed are unConstitutional says Ron Paul. No one has challenged him, but it's mighty strange that he has found the form of words a few months back signalling his withdrawal from the Presidential race.

I can only conclude that he was made an offer he couldn't refuse. Will we ever know what it was ?

Had RP continued on, too many would have got the message and change would have been unstoppable, even without him, which was his core theme - bearer of the Constitution message.

Try this for a hypothesis as to what the unrefuseable offer was. Since they didn't dare arrange for the obvious accident let alone a shooting, the financial establishment would have told him very obliquely that after his natural passing none of his many descendants would be allowed to live.

So as not to attract attention, it would take 50 yrs to finally complete the job.

Yes, you are right about the inevitable collapse and for the reasons you state, but which collapse could be averted if in Congress there were enough vocal people seeking the abolishment of Congress and withdrawal of the military from o/seas bases.

That's two trillion dollars per annum, if not mis spent, which would recover any parlous situation.

The name i would like to give Congress would be Treason House.