THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY is a compelling factual history of neoconservatism and its influence on US Foreign Policy in the Middle East during the first decade of the twenty-first century. Click on image above for details.

Wednesday, February 03, 2010


To many observers in the West it may seem that Iran’s decision to comply with the United Nations requirements for Iran to send its Uranium abroad for enrichment is a victory for Israel and the US who will no doubt claim that Iran’s leaders have succumbed to US and Western pressure and threats of further sanctions.

It is, however, not the outcome that the Israelis and the neocon-influenced Obama administration really want. Iran’s compliance with UN requirements does two things which the Israelis and neoconservatives wished to avoid. Firstly, it deprives the West of an excuse to directly attack Iran in order to affect regime change. Secondly, and perhaps far more importantly, it also leaves Iran in a position to continue to support their allies Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and also Syria. With no excuse now to directly attack Iran using Iran’s so-called ‘nuclear weapons program’ as an excuse, Israel will now have to confront Hezbollah and Hamas directly in an effort to flush out evidence of substantial Iranian support in order to use that as a casus belli to attack Iran.

In recent bellicose talk from Israel about confrontation with Hezbollah, Syria has also been mentioned by Defence Minister Ehud Barak as a potential target for Israeli ‘defensive’ action in the event of war against Hezbollah. The destruction of Hezbollah and Hamas has always been Israel’s aim. Both organisations are all that stands between Zionist Israel and their expansionist dreams of a Greater Israel that includes the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, the Golan Heights, and south Lebanon up to the Litani River. In 2006 Israel attempted for the third time to invade and occupy south Lebanon but was beaten back by remorseless Hezbollah attacks against the invaders despite being on the receiving end of equally remorseless attacks by Israeli bombers against Lebanon’s population which killed and wounded thousands of Lebanese civilians and destroyed much of Lebanon’s infrastructure.

In light of Iran’s latest effort to stymie US and Israel, Israel will now have to find some other ‘provocation’ with which to attack Hezbollah and Hamas - and ultimately, Iran.


Anonymous said...

This development shows that the Iranians are conscious of the war drums getting louder by the American empire and so, far from the 'Daleks' in which they are depicted as by the American propaganda machine, they show a perceptiveness that attempts to deflate the rising call for by the American empire and puts the onus back on the empire's warmongers.

In todays Australian newspaper (3 Feb) I see Daniel Pipes emerging for another round of 'paranoia propagation' advising Obama to 'seize the day' and attack Iran's nuclear facilities, citing self serving 'public support' for the endeavour, a useless Obama's chance to do something strong and effective and other wayward 'reasons'.
Tellingly, simple forgotten notions like 'Evidence' don't seem to be worthy for Mr Pipes's imagination where the lack of, for a nuclear weapon programme is is conspicuious by its absence.

Despite Murdoch 'media' efforts to the contrary, no evidence exists for an Iranian nuclear weapons effort and indeed as time goes by, this absence in itself indicates that nothing is there as weapons don't just appear by magic.
Engineers will tell you that new devices take years of development, and then testing for evaluation and finally production and fielding, each with various sub stages of work and moreso if there are problems.
Atom bombs are a complex endeavour and far removed from 'inventing' new hamburger varieties etc.
Indeed, one seldom hears the logic against this Iranian nuclear weapon bandwagon, but so everyone can understand consider;
Iran has repeatedly claimed publically over years that it has no bomb programme, not if they are telling the truth then the cupboard is bare and there is no need to worry.
But if Iran is lying and it is working on a bomb then at some point they will reveal their hand and test it (lacking the computer power to simulate the design one assumes).
If so then this will reveal the deception and violate their word as Muslims for their neighbours and the world.
Moreso, testing has to be done before production and fielding, as without a test, then they have no guarantee that any assembled weapon will actually work in a conflict or as a workable deterrent (which is what weapons are supposed to be for in any civilised nation).
Thus the utility of untested and perhaps unusable nuclear weapons are useless as deterrents and strike weapons if attacked by an outside power.
By extention, as Iran has publically stated its not got a bomb programme, then they've painted themselves in a corner and to reveal the contrary would demonstate their lies over time and lead to war (perhaps deservedly in this extreme case).
Thus all we have to do is nothing, just watch and if a test occurs, then it shows a deception and a test has to be done before production occurs.
Iran dare no enter production before a test as if a test fails then the production models are flawed which will require redesign and retesting.
Delivery is another problem either by bomber or missile most likely.
These tests would be detected readily enough (such is the spying on Iran ) and could only occur once a weapon is workable and put in a form so as to be deliverable.

Conclusion: Numerous problems implicit in any bomb programme, and where testing will reveal their hand if they are lying.
This 'programme logic' is often overlooked by warmongers far removed from design and technical issues and who get their information from films and the telly on how things work.
Then again I recall neocon Frank Gaffney on Lateline years ago claiming to have 'special knowledge' that Saddam really did have chemical weapons and still had them deployed in perfume bottles being smuggled out to the West a new weapon.
Perfumery companies are still doing business I see and are still waiting for this 'threat' to appear, just like the mythical Iranian atom bomb, which simple logic suggests doesn't exist.

Nylon Shirt

Damian Lataan said...

Thanks for that NS.

The neoconservatives have been banging on about Iran's so-called nuclear weapons program, as you say, for a long time.

I ran across an article in 'Commentary' only yesterday by neocon writer Joshua Muravchik who wrote that the Iranians were only 5-7 years away from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The article was from the July 1997 edition!

They don't give up!


Damian Lataan said...

PS If you have access to it, it's worth a read.

The article's entitled 'Why Iran is (still) a menace'.

'Commentary', Iss. 104, No. 1, p.39. July 1997.

Anonymous said...

I fail to see how this has "thwarted" their attempts at war. They will simply do as they did in the run up to the war on Iraq. Claim "too little, too late" and proceed as planned.

Anonymous said...

Israel with its fanatical Zionism is CANCER of the Middle East and actually Whole World.
Just like N. Finkelstein sed: "First, Israel has to suffer defeat..."
I can see that more and more people and countries may recognise,that it may be the biggest mistake of Humanity to allow such a fanatical, unhuman regime settle in Palestine...
Military defeat is out of question, because Israel would unleach its illegal WMD in all directions and it would be start of WW3.
The only way to preserve World Peace is regime change in Israel, but I am not very optimistic about that in near future.I believe more, that we are to wittness another wars of aggresion and terror iniciated buy Zionists and whole Humanity will pay the price again....
Europe may face somekind of FALSE FLAG TERROR so NATO could by dragged to future wars for Israel...Petr Czech

Anonymous said...

It would not surprise me that America also sighs from relief on this news, not the neocons but the rest of the people that make up its governance as America knew Israel was loading it up into an impossible situation.

If America or Israel attacks Iran, it will spark one event at least, the polarisation of the Muslim peoples, whilst US satrap governments would be on the side of the West, the people themselves would not be, many nations in the ME would find their civilian population up in arms and such as Saudi Arabia may actually dissolve into civil war, the feeling is that strong.

The Israeli's do not or ever had the ability to effectively attack Iran's nuclear facilities, a Pentagon committee identified some 4000 individual military targets that would have to be neutralised before they could even get near the various facilities, Israel just simply does not have that capability, America does if it were a case of shooting fish in a barrel but it is not that simple.

There is some speculation that Iran already has quite a few S-300's, Jane reported that they had then quietly retracted that, yet the Russian news services declared quietly two years ago that deliveries of S-300's had taken place as well as other systems such as the terrifying SunBurn.

The current build of S-300 allows according to the Russian military, the user the patent ability to digitally track stealth aircraft and also reach the high flying B-52's, in short it can and is highly effective at anything airborne the US has and Iran would give America more than a bloody nose, Iran certainly has the ability it would seem right now to repel any of the Israeli's aging aircraft, both scenarios would see either country caught out carrying out illegal and unprovoked attacks and would be a PR disaster for either.

And folks, don't forget that Iran is destined to become part of the SCO, that China has in the past said it will go to war for Iran and military analysts believe Russia too would side with Iran, America may get away with bullying ragtag little countries but could not win a war against the combined might of Russia and China, America and its allies act like the playground bullies and make a lot of threats and noise but in the real world, they would find themselves in a lot of trouble against the eastern alliance...

Yet history teaches too and recent history has shown that every time the US has meddled in Iran, has tried to pull one over on Iran, that it has blown up in their faces and this time is no different.

Anonymous said...

Seeing in the past the destruction of Syrian and Iraqi nuclear reactors by Israel , one has to wonder at the Wisdom of Iran in building another juicy target for Israel to practice and the War industries to benefit from .

But is no error , the Real Iranian projects are under ground and hardened , that's where the Action is . And they don't manufacture doughnuts there ...
Any Army graduate will tell you that in order to survive you must carry a big stick too . Israel , by posesing nukes , set the pace .
( Cough ), isn't that geometrical figure on the Israeli flag the original Red Sign ( Rothschild , German ) that the Rothschilds invented ( not a Judaic symbol ) ?
Now we know who controls Israel , besides USA , Canada , etc. .
The Rothschilds didn't just need a Country ( Beulford Stealing Accord ) , they needed one to built and control the nukes .
But the darn goyam cought on as proven by all Patriotic websites poping around :)

Posted by Doru

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the supportive comment Damian.
I think its important in this increasingly forgetful and shallow world that engineers and scientists speak out on issues and not allow the propaganda purveyors to dominate with their lies.

If truth were a barn door, they'd all struggle to hit it with a handful of wheat!.

I'd add too that no engineer worth their salt would ever declare a project to be fielded unless proper testing was done beforehand, as Damian correctly observes, these Iranian atom bomb claims have been around for a long time and yet what to the accusers have to show for it?.
Ergo, the bomb project doesn't exist and with each passing year, it becomes more clear that there is nothing.

I'd also thank our anonymous contributor regarding the Russian SAMS such as the s-300 and the later s-400 types which I agree are most impressive, especially when combined with a multi layered, integrated system, including the equally impressive shorter range SA-15 Tor which I recall may be in service in Iran.
Useful kit, to have to deter aggressors threatening to bomb ones country.
Also the Sunburn anti ship missile was cited by our helpful friend (with thanks) as just the sort of ship killer that gives the yanks real fears such is their efficacy.
I suggest friends, that in reality in 2010, the much vaunted 'US military superioriy' is now actually a hollow claim and for a long time based on gullible and boasting propaganda rather than fact.
The American empire has been defeated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam and been stymied elsewhere such as the smaller conflicts.
They fail to understand their oppponents, their weapons are ineffective and they are spending themselves into oblivion, where just yesterday it was widely reported that their budget deficit is now so bad that they are virtually in an 'east of suez' moment for those who recall their British history in the '60's.
Over the next decade their deficits will expand from 1.3 trillion to over 8.5 trillion.
I welcome their decline and note that even their space plans have gone awry (more political theatre).
Briefly, take their navy, based around 11 big aircraft carriers and support ships.
How effective are they really where for decades small cheap diesel/electric subs like our RAN Oberon and Collins subs have been 'sinking' the carriers in exercises (much to the annoyance of the U.S).
A measure of a weapon is its benefit outweighing its vulnerability or outclassed by greater opposing capability.
This simple premise is forgotten by the empire and its supporters.
Thus if a carrier can be sunk by a small quiet sub, then the advantage is with the sub as it wins the day and can move onto the next target undetected.
The U.S in their hubris believe big is better and still use noisier nuclear subs and carriers, forgetting the principle of being unseen and hitting at a weakness.
Indeed the RAN and many other navies are actually more effective in terms of efficacy than the yanks being premised on hulking 'show ponies' that are too vulnerable to use in reality.
The advent of new Russian anti ship missiles (quite a variety now) also I suggest brings the equation now back into the advantage of the attacker and making the carrier much more vulnerable as to be unusable in the face of weapons like the Sunburn and its kin.
In many ways we are in a new phase where just as the battleship was usurped by the carrier in WW2 and later, now the carrier group concept has been usurped by the quiet sub and the high performance anti ship missiles available today, especially when used in saturation strikes from shore, sub or small cheap fast ships or aircraft.
In short the real power is with distributed, quiet, small platforms like wolves dispatching a bear.
Thats the future and why the American empire reliant on its bluster is really a force that relies on empty intimidation premised on size.

Thank you and I welcome other opinions.
Nylon Shirt

Anonymous said...

An Israeli/American attack on Iran is inevitable. The forthcoming attack has less to do with nukes and more with prophecies. The Zionists want to first neutralize any and all potential obstacles, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Hezbollah, etc., before moving their buldozers beyond international borders in all directions, possibly upto Madina (the Arab city from where they had to flee when a new Abrahamic religion swelled 14 centuries ago).
Where the bulldozers stop, would be the menifestation of their prophecies, something to do with Messiah, Chosen Ones, Greater Israel, etc.