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Monday, March 04, 2013


As I’ve mentioned elsewhere on this blog over the years, there are a number of scenarios by which an attack against Iran might be launched but just recently two have emerged as being likely.

In one scenario it has been mentioned that the US will attack Iran using a ‘June window’ – whatever that is supposed to mean – while in another scenario the US would give a green light to Israel to launch an attack which the US would then support.

The first scenario stems from an Israeli Channel 10 report which, according to a Times of Israel report, said:

When he visits Israel next month, US President Barack Obama will tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that a ‘window of opportunity’ for a military strike on Iran will open in June.

The Times of Israel report went on to say:

Obama will come bearing the message that if diplomatic efforts and sanctions don’t bear fruit, Israel should “sit tight” and let Washington take the stage, even if that means remaining on the sidelines during a US military operation, Channel 10 reported. Netanyahu will be asked to refrain from any military action and keep a low profile, avoiding even the mention of a strike, the report said, citing unnamed officials.

While Netanyahu may well be willing to sit tight on the sidelines of any war the US launches against Iran, he is unlikely to ‘refrain from any military action’ entirely. A major US attack against Iran will be just the cover Netanyahu needs to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and West Bank on the pretext of pre-empting a retaliatory strike against Israel from Hezbollah and Hamas.

The second scenario originates from two US senators who will be pushing for a joint resolution declaring US support for an Israeli-initiated attack against Iran which would be supported by the US. The reality of this scenario is that in all likelihood Israel would launch the attack and then let the US takeover the offensive while Israel deals with Hamas and Hezbollah as outlined above. Israel simply does not have the resources to carry out a prolonged assault against Iran.

Suffice to say that any attack against Iran will have devastating consequences for the entire Middle East regardless of how or who starts it.

One thing’s for sure, however; it certainly won’t be Iran!

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