GAZA WAR – BACK DOOR TO CONFRONTATION WITH IRAN?

I have over the years suggested a number of scenarios by which Israel might achieve its ultimate endgame objectives of destroying its enemies, Hezbollah and Hamas, and realising the Zionist dream of creating a Greater Israel. All of these suggested scenarios have involved regime change in Iran.

I have suggested that an attack on Iran might include a simultaneous attack against Hezbollah and Hamas on the pretext of preventing either or both from mounting retaliatory attacks against Israel; I have suggested that Israel might find some casus belli to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon in the hope that such a war against Hezbollah might escalate to such an extent that it would provide an opportunity to attack Iran on the basis, perhaps, of preventing Iranian rockets and arms being shipped to Hezbollah. I have also suggested that Israel might use some excuse or another to attack Hamas in the Gaza Strip which might also escalate to include an attack against Iran, again because of Iran’s supply of rockets and arms to Hamas.

Michael Rubin, a warmongering ultra-neocon writing at Commentary magazine, suggests a variation of these themes whereby Hezbollah might decide to open a second front against Israel in support of Hamas in the Gaza during the present crisis and provide yet another opportunity for Israel to attack Iran. Rubin’s argument runs thus:

Experts and defense analysts agree that Iran would respond to any Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities by proxy, specifically by Hamas and Hezbollah rocketry launched at Israeli towns and cities. Indeed, this is one of the reasons beyond sheer ideological spite that the Iranian leadership has gone to such great lengths to arm both Hamas and Hezbollah.

The Iranian leadership may be coming very close to forcing Israel’s hand. If Hezbollah seeks to open a second front against Israel, then Israel could find itself in a two-front war with terrorist entities. Make no mistake, Israel would achieve its objective of destroying the majority of the longest-range and most lethal missiles supplied to Hamas and Hezbollah by Iran, Syria, and perhaps even North Korea.

This might reduce the costs to Israel of undertaking a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. After all, if Hamas and Hezbollah are temporarily neutered and if the Israeli government concludes that the elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who would have command and control over any Iranian nuclear arsenal would pose an existential threat, then the Israelis may decide that their window of opportunity would never be so favourable as the present. After all, Iran’s air defense is only going to get more sophisticated with time, and its missile program is advancing steadily, and so time is otherwise not on Israel’s side.

One could be forgiven for thinking that Rubin is just fantasizing about war with Iran and the prospect of a Greater Israel at some time in the not too distant future, however, Rubin is more than just a warmongering nutjob Zionist; he is also a very influential extreme right-wing Zionist player who has the ear of both powerful Israelis and American congressmen and administration officials.

To what extent Rubin’s conjecture can be taken any more seriously than any other commentator is unknown, but it would certainly be unwise to ignore it entirely. While Hezbollah are unlikely to be silly enough to open a second front against Israel, there’s no reason why Israel couldn’t find some pretext to attack Hezbollah, afterall it wouldn’t be the first time!