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Sunday, February 19, 2012


The way the rhetoric and propaganda is being presented to the world at the moment, one might be forgiven for thinking that any war launched against Iran will be as a result of Israeli impatience of the Obama administration’s apparent reluctance to attack Iran.

That may well be the rhetoric and the propaganda but it is far from reality.

The forthcoming attack against Iran will not be as a result of some series of events that leads to a spontaneous knee-jerk Israeli raid against Iran’s nuclear facilities but, rather, will be as a result of meticulous planning with every single detail and scenario carefully worked out beforehand.

In keeping with the current propaganda whereby Israel says it needs to act now in order to thwart Iran building a bomb at any time very soon but the US on the other hand says it needs to give economic sanctions against Iran time to bite, a war against Iran is likely to be started initially by a first strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel. This initial Israeli strike will then be immediately followed up by a massive bombing campaign against Iranian defence facilities as well as its governmental institutions by the US who will take over entirely from the Israelis who will then concentrate on attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will then be fully occupied as will be south Lebanon up to the Litani River.

While outwardly this series of events may seem to be as a result of spontaneous escalation started by Israeli impatience, in reality it will have been well scripted and thoroughly planned months ahead and awaiting only opportunity to trigger that first strike. This plan gets Obama off the hook with the American people as the November presidential election looms. He can claim that he was a reluctant participant and, despite what he will claim to be Isreali impetuousness, will say he had no alternative to back Israel all the way after they had made the first strike. Once war is underway, the American people will far more likely be in support of it if it can be seen that Israel started it than if Obama made the first strike.

The logistics of mounting a full-on war against Iran are enormous and the propaganda effort leading up to such a war is just a part of those logistics. Both the Israelis and the US have been carefully preparing and planning for this war since at least January 2010 when the US approved money for Israel to begin stockpiling hi-tech weapons and August 2010 when the Israelis ordered massive amounts of military fuel from the US. They know they will only get one shot at realising their real war aims.

The Israelis will say, and have been saying for years, that their war aim is simply to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons and the opening shots of the war will be based on a casus belli of Iran getting too close to building a nuclear weapon. But depriving Iran of nuclear weapons is not at all their real war aims. Their real war aims are far more ambitious.

A strike against Iran will provide Israel with an opportunity to attack both Hezbollah and Hamas on the pretence of pre-empting a retaliatory strike by these groups for attacking Iran. Israel will launch an all-out attack against all its enemies under the cover of the devastating US war against Iran. Their war aims are simple; for Israel it is to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah and begin a process of permanent occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as well, so they hope, of south Lebanon up to the Litani River that will lead to eventual annexation and the creation of a Greater Israel. The US by securing victory against the Iranians with overwhelming fire power will eliminate any opposition to US hegemony in the Middle East.

This will not simply be a knee-jerk war out of fear of a non-existent Iranian nuclear bomb threat. This war has been very carefully planned and awaits only opportunity. The aim is regime change to favour both Israel and the US, and it will be an excuse for the Israelis to also eliminate their enemies and to take the next steps toward their dream of creating a Greater Israel.


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1 comment:

30.06 said...

Hands Off Iran