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Monday, January 19, 2009


Many Israelis do not see the pummelling of the Gaza as a victory for them but simply as business that will need to be finished at some other time despite Olmert’s declaration that Israel ‘has won’ and that Israel’s objectives were ‘obtained in full’.. It is likely that Hamas will emerge from the ruins much stronger and more determined than ever to continue their struggle against Israeli aggression and will likely begin to rearm within just a few months.

Olmert’s failure yet again to destroy what is perceived to be Israel’s enemies will reflect on both the Kadima party led by Tzipi Livni and the Labor party led by Ehud Barak. One would have thought that the Israelis would have learnt their lesson from their failures against Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006 but it seems the Israelis have made the exact same mistakes in their attacks against the Gazan people. Massive damage to infrastructure does not win wars. The killing of innocent children and civilians does not win wars. Killing a few hundred fighters does not win wars. Committing warcrimes does not win wars. All these things Olmert has now done twice and it has played directly into the hands of the ultra right-wing Zionist Likud party and will guarantee its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, victory at next months elections in Israel.

A Netanyahu-led Israeli government will take advantage of Olmert’s defeat by declaring Israel’s attempt at destroying Hamas and regaining the Gaza for Israel as unfinished business that Netanyahu will take care of at the first available opportunity after the elections.

In a matter of hours now there will be a new US President and within just a few weeks there will be an Israeli election. The question now is; if Netanyahu wins, which now seems likely, how much support can he expect from President Obama if he does decide to complete unfinished business with Hamas, Hezbollah and, hopefully, Syria and Iran? Will Netanyahu decide to go it alone? He can’t go it alone because he needs to rely on munitions and fuel from the US but he might decide to start out on his own and hope that the US will support Israel once fighting breaks out and it is shown to have been ‘started’ by Israel’s enemies.

Time alone will tell, What can be guaranteed, however, is, if war does break out again it will appear to the world that once again Israel has been the ‘victim’.


Anonymous said...

Don't be so gloomy, DL. A Netanyahu win will be another very significant nail in the coffin of the fool-hardy social-engineering experiment known as Israel; after Lebanon '06 and Gaza '08.

The leftish quality of the people declaring enthusiastic support for Obama in the inauguration run-up suggests that the fears of him becoming another Bush are unfounded. And they won't be happy if he lets them down.

IF the left's faith in Obama proves to be justified then the discordance between Obama-talk and Bibi-talk will make Bibi look like the unmitigated lunatic he is and further damage Israel's image in the US. Obama won't even have to say much; Bibi is quite capable of making himself look evil, dishonest and stupid with no help whatsoever.

Damian Lataan said...

My gloom stems from the certain knowledge that a Netanyahu win at the elections will mean the deaths of more innocent Palestinians and, indeed, Israelis, before that last nail is driven home in Zionist Israel finally putting an end to all of their torments and creating a state that Palestinian Jews and Arabs can live in freely.

Unfortunately, I have little faith in an Obama administration somehow becoming pro Palestinian or pro Iran. Obama may well seek to negotiate with Iran but about what? The nuclear weapons meme is a propaganda and rhetorical furphy existing solely to provide an eventual casus belli for Israel and the US to attack Iran. While Obama is unlikely to go along with the idea that Iran should be pre-emptively attacked, if Israel decides to go it alone then Obama will have no choice but to bail out Israel when Iran retaliates; fait accompli whether Obama likes it or not. Netanyahu might be willing to take the risk.

The situation reminds me a little of the events of the Second World War when Mussolini decided it was time to expand his little empire once he’d been inspired by Hitler’s initial successes in northern Europe. He attacked Greece and bit off far more than he could actually chew. Hitler had to bail him out but in doing so Hitler was obliged then to take on some countries, mainly the Balkans, that he wasn’t quite ready for because that’s where the Allies had now come to fight off the Italians in Greece and Albania. Some historians argue that it was Mussolini’s arrogance and dreams of empire that ultimately caused Hitler to lose the war against the Russians because Hitler had to spread his manpower to places he didn’t really want to be while fighting the Russians.

Anonymous said...

Putin (correctly) interpreted last year's Georgia fiasco as an attack on Russia - facilitated by Israel and Uncle Sam. Before that little exercise in self-deception Putin was already on the record as having stated that an attack on Iran will be viewed as an attack on Russia.

Israel won't go it alone against Iran because
(1) Iran is only an imaginary (PR) threat to Israel. All the hype about attacking Iran is for public consumption in Israel and the US. The IOF 'trains' by killing undefended women and children, UNOPPOSED, in Lebanon and Palestine and is casualty-averse; like Uncle Sam.

The Israeli military is a joke. The Iran-talk serves no other purpose than to claw back some military credibility from the obvious indicators of cowardice and incompetence.

(2) If Zion does attack Iran Putin will tell Uncle Sam to keep its nose out of the ensuing melee (which will probably include Turkey and Pakistan, if necessary). Such a move is much more likely to transform the US into a conciliator than a participant in an unwinnable escalation which could see assets in the continental USA targeted if things get out of hand.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, the end of my first comment should have read:
Bibi is quite capable of making himself look evil, dishonest and deranged with no help whatsoever.
It would be premature, and unwise, to think of him as stupid.