The reason why President Obama romped home to the Presidency in 2008 was because the American people believed him when he told them the wars would end and he’d bring the troops home. Well, it took a while but he got there in the end in Iraq, but the American people are still seeing their boys getting killed four years later in Afghanistan.
As the 2012 Presidential election approaches, the last thing he wants to do is get America involved in another war, this time with Iran. The bottom line is: if he goes to war this side of 6 November, Obama will become a one term President for sure. And, because of that virtual certainty, one can just about guarantee there will be no war launched against Iran this side of the election.
The commentariat on both the right and the left have played the suspense game on this asking what would happen if Israel decided to launch a pre-emptive unilateral strike against Iran. The reality is: it would be absolutely impossible for Israel to launch a unilateral pre-emptive strike against Iran. Israel is completely reliant on the US for fuel, much of its weapons, intelligence, co-ordination with allies, and back-up against retaliation by the Iranians and Hezbollah and anyone else that gets involved.
While the US build up their forces in the Persian Gulf, it’s very unlikely that there will be any attack against Iran before the elections unless Iran blinks first and fires the first shot.
Part of the psychological game being played with Iran is the play-acting between Israel and the US whereby the US behaves as if it is restraining an irate friend from a fight and would prefer to have the two sides resolve their differences around a conference table rather than the battlefield. But, again, the reality is somewhat different.
The US has as itchy a finger as Israel and wants to see regime change in Iran as much as the Israelis do. But Obama knows that he has far too much to lose if he squeezes the trigger this side of the election – and, of course, Netanyahu knows that.
The game has been played so well that many are now even commenting about how a divide has grown in relations between the US and Israel. This, so they hope, will lull Iran into a false sense of security and, at the same time, mould public opinion into believing that Obama really does want to see peace between Iran, the US and Israel.
But don’t be fooled. This is all about regime change; not Iran’s so-called nuclear weapons program. And there is only one way to achieve regime change.
That will happen after the election when Obama thinks he has absolutely nothing to lose.
Frightening, isn’t it!