With the Iranian’s now moving toward a deal which may see them yet doing an exchange of their uranium stockpile for ready-to-use fuel rods from a third country, we will likely see the anti-Iranian rhetoric shift from the ‘Iran has a nuclear weapons program’ nonsense to the ‘Iran supplies and trains the Taliban that kill US soldiers in Afghanistan’ propaganda which the neoconservatives have already kicked off.
The Israelis and their neoconservatives supporters will be particularly disappointed, to say the least, if Iran goes down the road of getting their fuel rods from a third country because it means Israel will then have lost any reason to continue directly threatening Iran with a strike against their nuclear facilities on the basis that ‘Iran is an existential threat to Israel’ if it continued enriching uranium.
That’s not to say, however, that the US would not attack Iran using Iran’s ‘interference’ in Afghanistan and Iraq as an excuse but, even if that happened, it would still be difficult for Israel to find an excuse to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip as the war essentially would be between Iran and the US over events that are not directly connected to Israel.
If Hezbollah and Hamas did not make moves to strike Israel in retaliation for a US attack against Iran, then any move by Israel to strike Hamas and Hezbollah would be seen as an unprovoked attack and thus a war crime. In short, even if the US were to prevail in a future attack against Iran and managed to get the Iranian government to capitulate and submit to UN demands to have a new government that was ‘Western friendly’, it would deprive the Israelis of their endgame of creating a Greater Israel at the expense of south Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
The status quo would remain much the same as it is now provided Hamas and Hezbollah didn’t provide Israel with any excuse to attack them. Since Hamas and Hezbollah would have lost their main benefactor, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah would be taking care not provoke Israel. This, in turn, may frustrate Israel enough for them to seek other ways of coming up with a casus belli to attack Hamas and Hezbollah. As has been demonstrated before by Israel, they are likely to attack on the basis of the most flimsiest of excuses or, failing that, create one themselves.