The present standoff between the US and Russia over Georgia and Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia virtually guarantees that Russia will not support further sanctions against Iran in the United Nations. Since Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto power, it is doubtful that the US and their allies will even bother raising the issue of sanctions against Iran until the conflict over Georgia and the separatist states has been resolved.
So, where does this leave Israel?
Israel and the Israel lobby in the US has been champing at the bit to bomb Iran but would much prefer it if the US were to do it for them. Unfortunately for Israel, the US, or more specifically, George Bush, has got his hands full with an American people who are in no mood for more war, especially on the eve of a Presidential campaign that many see as being one of the most important in American history.
However, all is not entirely lost for those rightwing Israelis itching to let loose on the Iranians. Firstly, Condoleezza Rice has said that the US would not say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to Israel doing what it thinks it needs to do in order to ‘defend’ herself, which, of course, is an open invitation for Israel to attack Iran. Secondly, the fact that Russia is now unlikely to support further UN sanctions against Iran could work in Israel’s favour. Waiting for the slow process of the UN imposed sanctions to wind its way through the system has always been the cause of great frustration to Israel but, since the US has insisted that it must go down this road in order to get public opinion on side, Israel has just had to grit its teeth and go along with it. Now, though, they can see themselves being relieved of that particular burden and claim that there is now no time to waste and that Iran is an immediate threat that can no longer be tolerated especially since the UN is no longer able to apply sanctions. In this case Israel may just feel free to ‘unilaterally’ attack Iran but knowing full well that the US will come to Israel’s aid just as soon as the first shot has been fired by Israel.
Which all kind of begs the question: What was the Georgians aim of attacking South Ossetia in the first place and to what extent was there Israeli involvement and US collusion given that we know that there was very heavy Israeli influence within the Georgian government among some of their ministers?
AUSTRALIANS AT WAR
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4 comments:
Excellent post as usual. I read you daily. Yes, I been asking myself exactly the same question: Why did Georgia attack South Oksenia? Obviously they wanted to provoke Russia but WHY? Who benefits the most?
Interesting times indeed.
Damian Lataan,
I found your site by way of a Google News search for - Israel Georgia.
The People’s Voice, in Nashville Tennessee, reprinted your journal entry and I clicked on the “Source” window.
Miraculously, it seems, I’m now posting my comments on your site in Australia. Marshall McLuhan’s global village is a reality.
I maintain a humble weblog on livejournal.com. My URL:
http://new-york-loner.livejournal.com/
My views concerning the US/Israeli relationship are not generally popular, here in the states.
I delight in debunking and refuting the popular myths that underpin the unnatural US/Israeli relationship.
To use a popular expression, I refuse to “drink the AIPAC Kool-Aid”.
For whatever reason(s), the mainstream US media have barely mentioned Israel’s ethnic, strategic and financial interests in the Caucasus and it’s military sales and related support for the Georgian government. One must read the Israeli and the official Jewish publications in order to glean some of the relevant facts.
Certainly, the Israelis have good reason to maintain a very low profile at this time. If the American public was made aware of the fact that Israeli special interests were fashioning US policy in the Caucasus region, concerned citizens might start to ask questions.
It is my contention that the US federal government has become fundamentally beholden to the special
interests, as opposed to the public interest. The War Lobby is, by far, the most influential special interest group in Washington, DC.
The War Lobby, by my definition, consists of an unofficial consortium of the Defense lobby, the Israel lobby and the Energy lobby (mnemonic acronym = DIE). The mutual interests of these three powerful forces overlay and complement each other in the Middle East and in Eurasia.
The burning question remains - Will George W. Bush give the Israelis the green light for a strike on Iran, during the “Lame Duck” period, between Nov 4th and Jan. 20th?
I believe that Bush/Cheney are certainly capable of rationalizing more irresponsible and unprecedented moves on behalf of the War Lobby. Those guys are still on a mission.
Bush is now upping the ante in the Black Sea, as the Cold War suddenly returns from the dead. It’s all quite bizarre.
All this dangerous sabre -rattling may be part of a delusional neocon scheme to keep the pliant Republicans in power; Senator McCain seems to be the beneficiary of the bad news and he is a proven submissive.
If Barack Obama wins the election, the War Lobby may get a little nervous and hit the panic button during Bush’s “mad duck” period.
I am hoping that cooler heads will prevail, but I’m not optimistic at this point in time.
I am impressed with your site and your insightful comments, Damian.
Please visit my site and comment.
new_york_loner
G'day Damian, just found this report.
The biggest Newspaper in the Netherlands today devotes its front page to news that the Dutch intelligence agency has helped the CIA prepare for an air attack on Iran which it now believes is imminent.
AVID, Holland's military intelligence service, has pulled back from operations it was carrying out inside Iran as it believes an American led attack will go ahead within weeks according to De Telegraaf's sources
Will keep an eye out for follow ups.
Thanks for that Bob; I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if an attack occurs within the next few weeks or even days. The window is rapidly closing.
Damian
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