COULD THE INSURGENCY IN IRAQ LEAD TO AN ATTACK ON IRAN?

The al Sadr-led insurgency seems to have gained momentum. Iraqi puppet government forces are changing sides and fighting for the insurgency, while others are simply refusing to fight against al Sadr’s Mahdi army. Some are abandoning their uniforms but keeping their weapons to join in the fast growing insurgency against the US and the collaborative Iraq government.

To appreciate the importance of this development one should consider the consequences that these men that have switched sides will suffer if they are captured by the US/Iraqi government army or police. Once having switched sides there is no going back, yet, according to the Timesonline article, these men have made the switch without a seconds thought. They must be fully confident of success, a confidence that could only be gained from having some knowledge of the strength and ability of the government forces and police relative to the insurgents, and, more importantly, the extent to which the insurgency is likely to grow and spread. In photographs of the insurgents that are appearing in the mainstream western press, many of the insurgent fighters have thrown caution to the wind by not covering their faces when being photographed, another sign of a growing confidence in the insurgency.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi puppet government forces have had to call in US and British air support to help them dislodge insurgent fighters. The problem with this tactic is that, one; it kills more civilians than it does fighters which, in turn, creates even more resentment from the local population against the government who are now seen to be killing their own people and, two; while such attacks may be successful in killing a few insurgents, it achieves absolutely nothing in terms of regaining lost ground, a fundamental mistake the US and Britain and their allies have been making throughout the entire war in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

But what of the Iran connection in all of this? Moktada al Sadr, of course, is supported by Iran; indeed, al Sadr himself lives in Tehran and is studying at one of Shiite Islam’s most revered seminaries at Qom. So far we have heard little from the US propaganda machine about Iran’s role in the renewed insurgency which, in itself, is a worry. Already there are rumours that the lull in propaganda against Iran right at this time is a lull before what many consider to be the coming storm. Lew Rockwell has even written of rumours abounding in Russia of a pending attack by the Americans against Iran on April 4 or 6. Whether or not this happens is something that only time will be able to tell us, but one thing is for sure and that is; the final confrontation between Israel/US and Iran will happen sooner or later and what is now happening in Iraq may well see it happening sooner rather than later – especially if the insurgency in Iraq looks like getting a more permanent grip throughout Iraq.