Further to my last post wondering if Israel might launch a pre-emptive unilateral attack against Iran before the gulf between Israel and the US over Iran’s nuclear program gets to a point of no return, it should be pointed out – as some commentators have – that there is unlikely to be any attack against Iran while the current round of talks between Iran and the so-called P5+1 alliance are still underway. Talks are scheduled to restart on 10 November 2013 after a break that allows the parties to consider their next moves.
Once the talks are over, however, if the outcome of the talks hasn’t satisfied Netanyahu who is demanding that Iran dismantles all of its nuclear facilities, then he might feel that this maybe the only opportunity he’ll have to attack Iran with any hope of the US, no matter how reluctantly, getting on board to help the Israelis in their fight against Iran. Netanyahu may take a chance and attack in the hope that Obama will consider it fait accompli and be left with no option other than to support Israel by launching its own attacks against Iran.
However, if as an outcome of the talks Obama expresses satisfaction with whatever deal they come up with about Iran’s nuclear program and then states that as far as the US is concerned, provided Iran keeps to its end of the deal, the crisis is over, then it’s all over for Netanyahu too – which means Netanyahu will have to act quickly after the talks are concluded if he wants the US to help Israel fight Iran.