It must be fairly clear to every observer by now that, while the US was initially caught on the hop by the onset of the Egyptian revolution, it has now adopted a strategy whereby it will attempt to pull all the strings needed to control the course of Egyptian politics into the immediate future. It must also be fairly clear by now that it will be taking on this task in order to exclusively benefit the interests of Israel and Israel’s continued domination over the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
While Obama seemingly was expressing sympathy for the anti-Mubarak protestors and their demands for Mubarak to step aside and clear a path for democracy, Obama quickly realised that too quick a change might very easily allow the Muslim Brotherhood to dominate a new government. It was at this point that Obama decided that he and his administration should attempt to completely take over and micro-manage a transition that will ensure that Israel’s interest and current arrangements with Egypt remain intact.
Over the years, the usual method adopted by the US for gaining control of a situation in foreign lands is simply to fork out vast sums of cash to the people you want to keep on side. While there is no actual evidence to say that this has happened in the case of Egypt, past experience tells us that this is exactly the method the US will use to get crucial players on side such as, in this case, the senior and middle ranks of the Egyptian armed forces. While I have no proof whatsoever that this is happening, I can nonetheless guarantee that this is exactly what the administration through the offices of the CIA are doing right now as you read these words.
If ever the Egyptian armed forces were going to take the side of the protestors, they would have done so by now.
Obama still needs to tread very carefully; the revolution is still strong and determined. However, I suspect that the strategy now is for the US to maintain the rhetoric of support for the demand for democracy in order to appear to be sympathetic towards the protestors cause thus keeping them on side, while, at the same time, insisting that a transition of power should be overseen by the US through negotiation between vice-President Omar Suleiman, the opposition – including moderate elements of the Muslim Brotherhood – and US State Department officials. The US will ensure that the more radical elements of the Muslim Brotherhood will be manoeuvred out of the discussions and, at the same time, will ease Mubarak out of any effective power.
A lot hangs on how this revolution ends as to whether or not the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip will see the light of freedom at the end of their tunnels or merely the need to continue smuggling essential supplies through them in order to survive.