It’s becoming increasingly apparent to the entire world now that, no matter what Iran does with regard to its nuclear program, it will never be enough for Israel and Israel will continue to pursue its witch-hunt against Iran until the regime in Iran has been changed and it will use Iran’s so-called ‘nuclear weapons program’ as the excuse they need to eventually instigate a final confrontation that they hope will lead to that regime change.
Regardless of the current negotiations and their outcome, Israel will continue to assert that Iran is maintaining a secret nuclear weapons program. Amos Harel in his latest opinion piece in Ha’aretz, says that Iran will likely demand more conditions and delays all designed, he infers, to cover Iran’s ‘race for the bomb’. Harel also insists that Israeli intelligence ‘on the Iranian program is largely reliable and accurate’ yet they are unable to produce any evidence of that intelligence to the world or even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Since it is the IAEA that are the major players in the negotiations and who have oversight of Iran’s nuclear activities, one would have thought that the best outcome for Israel would be for it to release to the IAEA, and to the world, this so-called ‘intelligence’ they say they have and convince the rest of the world once and for all that Iran does, indeed, have a nuclear weapons program.
Of course, there is a problem for Israel if they were to do this. First, if Iran really did have a nuclear weapons program and Israel really did have hard evidence of it and then declared it for the entire world to see, while it would be very embarrassing for Iran, it wouldn’t bring down the regime. Israel would have played its hand but still be stuck with an Iranian regime that continued to support Hezbollah and Hamas.
If Israel were serious about their fears of a nuclear armed Iran and had evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program then Israel would have gone to the IAEA and the UN with their evidence long ago, yet, they haven’t. There can be only two reasons why they haven’t; one, they don’t have any evidence any more than the IAEA or the US have, or two, if they show their hand, they lose.
So, what’s it really all about?
The reality is this: Iran, as it keeps telling the world, has no nuclear weapons program and is intent only on generating electrical energy. Israel insists that Iran does have a nuclear weapons program – despite the total lack of evidence – because it wants to use it as an excuse to attack Iran, together with the US, in order to bring about regime change so that Israel can then deal once and for all with Hezbollah in Lebanon which they then hope will result in access to the much needed waters of the Litani River. They can also then deal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip after which they can then do as they please with the Palestinians in the Strip without fear of resistance.
Israel will not show their hand because they have no hand to show. Israel’s game is all bluff designed to get the world to support an attack on Iran that will lead to regime change.
We’ve been down this road before.
AUSTRALIANS AT WAR
THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY is a compelling factual history of neoconservatism and its influence on US Foreign Policy in the Middle East during the first decade of the twenty-first century. Click on image above for details.
10 comments:
I suspect this is wishful thinking on the part of the Zionists. The Americans are hardly going to be keen on starting yet another was in the Middle East, being heavily committed, not to say overstretched, in Iraq and Afghanistan already. The Zionists will make threatening noises and utter lots and lots of scary propaganda, but in the end there will be nothing they can do.
At some point Israeli hubris is going to rub Russia or China in a really bad, bad way, and Tel Aviv will be changed from the Holy Land to a holely land. Courtesy of Mach 3 Sunburn II cruise missiles fling under clouds and radar. At which point most mideast problems will vanish -- along with Israel.
Those who dare someone to knock the chip off their shoulder may find their head and upper torso completely removed. The Israelis may find Dimona, Tel Aviv, all nuclear and armed force bases, ship and subs removed in one fell swoop.
Right. Iran isn't trying to get a bomb, and all the problems in the ME would vanish with Israel... that's funny, considering 99% violence in Muslim lands right now is between Sunnis and Shiites. The people who really want to see Iran hit by the Israelis are the Saudi royal family and their friends in the gulf, as well as their friends in Texas. I doubt the Jews have the stomach for it, to tell you the truth. Too bad, imho. The world would be better off without the ayatollah.
Remember...
All Hallow's Eve comin' up fast.
Your analysis seems cogent, Damian. I enjoy reading your blog entries.
No doubt, The Israelis would like to see regime change in Tehran; but Uncle Sam is growing a bit weary of the heavy lifting.
Iraq and Afghanistan have drained the economy, US military reserves and public support for more regime change and pre-emptive war.
Just like the Jewish State in Palestine, America now has its own Occupied Territories to deal with.
Netanyahu's original white paper "Securing the Realm" may be Bibi's blueprint for the future, but America is less able and perhaps less willing to engage in more Holy War at Israel's behest.
Will Obama acquiesce to the neocon agenda? If Obama balks, I suspect that Joe Biden will be installed, LBJ-style.
Back in July, Biden said that Israel did not need any so-called "green lght" from the US, in order to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran. Israel likes that kind of talk.
Maybe the Israelis will effect regime change rght here, in the USA. From Folke Bernadotte to Gaza, state-sponsored assassinations are their favorite modus operandi.
The problem with this analysis is tha it assumes that Israel can deal with Hezbollah, which is not the case.
Israel was badly defeated in 2006 without Iran lifitng a finger.
SO Iran is not a factor with Hezbollah's fighting prowess (though it is before/after the war in armaments).
Anonymous @ 8.56, Israel has the military clout to 'deal' with Hezbollah any time it likes. Contrary to popular opinion, Israel's goal during the 2006 war was not so much to crush Hezbollah but to provoke Iran into openly supporting Hezbollah with weapons and men thus providing a casus belli for Israel and the US to attack Iran and for Israel to invade south Lebanon with full force.
If Israel chose to launch an all-out attack against Hezbollah, Israel would easily militarily prevail. Israel will only be able to do that however, if Iran is seen to openly support Hezbollah and as a consequence escalates the threat against Israel. This is what Israel wants; it can then move into south Lebanon justifying itself on the basis that Iran is a mortal threat to Israel's survival while leaving the US to deal with Iran.
The historical evidence of Israel's past military prowess, particularly in its wars with other Arab nations, notably Egypt, suggests that Israel can crush Hezbollah at any time it likes. Do not make the mistake of underestimating Israel's military ability nor its capacity to engage in what it believes is a fight for survival.
If ever there is war between Israel and Iran then Israel, with US support, will win and it will be the end of any hopes the Palestinian people may have of having a state of their own. That will be gone forever and Israel will create its dream of a Greater Israel at the Palestinians peoples expense.
Damian, I fear your grand geostrategic vision is out of focus. The purpose of the Zionist assault on Lebanon in '06 was not to provoke a war with Iran, it was to secure the water of Lebanon's Litani River. Quite an ambitious project, it was, too: empty southern Lebanon of all its people (so as not to create a "demographic problem"), annex the whole area, and sluice off every drop of the water of the Litani for the benefit of Jews only. The first of these aims was largely achieved: by carpet-bombing the villages and saturating the countryside with fléchettes and cluster bombs, the Zionists succeeded in driving the people out. But they never reached the Litani, because Hezbollah defeated them on the ground. Your insistence that they could have brushed Hezbollah aside but decided not to is, how shall I put it, counterintuitive.
G'day Trad. True, the ultimate endgame for the Zionists is to gain permanent access to the waters of the Litani River, but Israel can't do that without defeating Hezbollah in such a way that the world sees it as a ‘righteous victory’ justifying a permanent occupation. To defeat Hezbollah, Israel must first neutralise Iran in such a way that it is no longer able to support Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. Without Iran to support it, Hezbollah resistance will collapse. An Israeli occupation would then round up any remaining pockets of resistance and ruthlessly deal with it.
In this day and age of instant communications, however, Israel will not be able to deal ruthlessly with anyone unless there is something else going on that can distract the world’s attention from such action – like an all out attack on Iran.
As I said earlier, Israel can easily defeat both Hezbollah and Hamas at any time it likes but can not do so while the world is watching as it was both in the 2006 war and the 2008/2009 Gaza slaughter.
Israel launched ground assault attacks on Hezbollah positions from the beginning of the 2006 war; they did not launch any major ground assault with the goal of reaching the Litani River until 4 weeks into the war (war started on 12 July, Litani assault started 12 August) hoping that during those 4 weeks that the situation would escalate to draw in Iran and the US. Realising that the world was watching and Iran wasn’t biting, their last chance was to launch an offensive that they hoped Iran or Syria would respond to. Neither did and so the US put a stop to it via the UN resolution 1701.
The only thing stopping the Israelis from destroying Hezbollah and Hamas is world opinion. It would be a big mistake to underestimate Israel’s military abilities.
Damien,
Fair comment vis a' vis Israel's lack of evidence produced against Iran nuclear programme.
It follows that if they (and the yanks etc) had anything concrete, they'd have aired it by now such has been consistancy of their 'dark mutterings' over time.
Thus I think we're in the realm of an 'Iraq' war leadup situation- deceive and smear obliquely, where only only the unreflective fall for the snowjob.
I hope most people have learn't the lesson with Iraq.
Also, my own thinking is that because Iran has consistantly denied any nuclear weaponry programme quite openly ,then if they're lying, they're going to be in quite a pickle in terms of their integrity and honour amongst their neighbours and fellow Muslims if it turns out they are.
Besides which, nuclear weapons are hard to make and deploy in usable forms.
At some point if they exist, there must be manufacturing and (importantly) testing of the devices.
Powerful computational tools can simulate much, but I don't think Iran possesses such kit, moreover any testing of a device reveals they've been lying and dismisses their long standing denials.
How they could 'wiggle' out of all that is hard to fathom (implicit threat by the yanks perhaps?).
Thus on balance, one is inclined to think Iran is being truthful having 'painted itself' into a corner on its programme and lacking any hard evidence to the contrary they are innocent until proven guilty and should be left alone (or better still make friends with them with due respect to their dignity and integrity).
I fear the warmongers though will never learn though as that is all they know.
Earth calling the TARDIS, Doctor, the bleedin Sontarans are already here.!.
Thanks for your thoughts Damien and reading your blog history I agree with your past comments too on that that insultingly sarcy Dylan Kissane too. (who uses the mask of sarcasm to conceal his bare cupboard).
good wishes squire
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