Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is just itching to find an excuse to attack Iran and what better way than to try what his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, tried in 2006 – provoke Hamas in the Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon by getting them to retaliate with minor incidents to Israeli border provocations and then use this as an excuse to launch massive attacks against both.
Olmert failed in 2006, not through lack of effort, but because Hezbollah didn’t use its Iranian-built ordnance against Israel and Iran refrained from any direct, other than verbal, support to Hezbollah and Hamas. Nearly three years later Netanyahu awaits his opportunity. He knows that he will not be able to strike against Iran first because Obama has made it quite clear that he doesn’t support any Israeli unprovoked so-called preventative or pre-emptive attack against Iran.
This past week Israel conducted a full-scale ‘defence’ exercise simulating war with Hamas and Hezbollah indicating that this may be seen by the Netanyahu government as the most expedient way of getting Iran to act in such a way as to provide casus belli for Israel to attack Iran with US support.
The other alternative is for Israel to make such a lot of noise about a ‘pre-emptive’ attack on Iran that Iran makes a pre-emptive pre-emptive attack on Israel – hardly likely but, what would an Iranian attack against Israel look like? A massive explosion in the heart of Tel Aviv? A missile attack alarm going off two minutes before the explosion? Maybe a second explosion of similar size elsewhere? Follow it up with propaganda about ‘Iranian pre-emptive attack’ and, voila! Instant casus belli. Why not? The Zionists are quite happy to put their own people in harms way for the Zionist cause. They certainly had no qualms about putting the people of Ashkelon and Sderot in harms way by bombing the Palestinians in the Gaza knowing full well that Palestinian fighters would launch retaliatory rocket strikes against the Israelis. It’s exactly what the Israeli military wanted them to do in order to create their casus belli to launch their devastating onslaught against the Gazan people in 2008/09. There’s no chicken and egg question here; sixty years of Israeli aggression against the Gazan people demonstrate adequately that the Gazans were responding to Israeli aggression and deprivations, not the other way round – unless, of course, one believed the Israeli propaganda.
There is no option now for the Israelis but for the Iranians to be seen casting the first stone. Without that there can be no attack against Iran.
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